← Zulu's (Lynnwood) Board Game Cafe DTR Store Championship
Fire Umbra GuardianTier 1
at Zulu's (Lynnwood) Board Game Cafe DTR Store Championship
decks
1
(4.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
4-2-1
overall winrate
64.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
61.8%
avg ELO +5.9 per match
expected value
54.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
55.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1345
· median 1345
· range 1345–1345
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1087
Q1 1272
Q3 1352
1471
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 9.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 69.6% | +18.8 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 9.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 9.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 9.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.0% | +8.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +0.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.5% | -10.4 |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Zander | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +13.0 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.2% | -7.7 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
